The conservative protests in Washington, D.C. on April 15 and September 12 of this year are an interesting reversal in that mass protests have been almost exclusively the province of the left for the past 40 or so years. The protests have been enthusiastically lauded on the right and have even sparked a mini-controversy between the cable networks over a chest-beating Fox News ad in the Washington Post. What's most remarkable to me about the whole situation is how similar the protests themselves and the atmosphere surrounding them are to the various liberal and left-wing protests of the past ten years. It should go without saying that except for a few news cycles worth of coverage and favorable reception from ideological allies, none of those demonstrations made much of a discernible impact on public policy. I think that these conservative protests will wind up much the same and for much the same reasons. Here's why:
1. Nobody can tell what's actually being protested
I honestly have very little idea what the 9/12 protesters are actually protesting or what they hope to accomplish. The most commonly cited reason I've heard for the movement is opposition to "government spending" which could mean about anything (although I can't recall any signs decrying the military budget). Reading Glenn Beck's 9/12 Project Mission Statement actually makes things less clear. Rather than mention specific grievances or areas of concern, it traffics in the vaguely paranoid existential malaise that is Beck's unique stock in trade; anyone who reads the news and feels "an empty pit in your stomach... as if you're completely alone" is invited to join.
This is a problem that left-wing protests have suffered from for years and years. Even in the case of the protests against the Iraq War, which would seem to be pretty straightforward, there were always vocal contigents who seemed to think that the gathering was a stellar place to advocate for eradicating racism, freeing Mumia Abu-Jamal, or ending U.S. dependence on foreign oil. If the goal is to convince your fellow citizens of something, it's pretty important to decide on a concrete message first.
2. It's impossible to tell how many people actually show up.
The U.S. Parks Department used to provide official estimates of crowd size for large events in Washington, D.C., but after estimating the crowd for 1995's Million Man March as being considerably less than a million, they were threatened with a lawsuit by the organizers and subsequently decided that crowd estimating was too politically charged of a practice to continue. Since then, there's been a predictable response to any protest, where the supporters of the rally make a wildly overinflated turnout claim and ideological opponents counter with a lowball estimate. 9/12 is no exception, with conservatives at one point putting the count at 2 million (which would be larger than the turnout for the Obama inauguration) and some liberals placing it at 50,000. The back and forth over size and turnout often gets as much or more play as the reason for the protest itself. Since the notion that bigger is better is implicit in the notion of a largescale protest, the lack of a definitive size estimate can be problematic in terms of making the case to the undecided.
3. The crazies always soak up most of the attention.
Whether the protest is focused on issues of the left or right, most of the attendees are probably fairly mainstream in their beliefs, albeit more politically involved on certain issues. Unfortunately, protesting takes a lot of energy, which means that the crazier and angrier people are, the more likely they are to show up and taint everyone else by association. Even when only a small majority of a well-meaning crowd are on the fringe, extremism will always command a disproportionate amount of attention. Again, this has been a huge problem on the left for approximately forever, whether it's with the involvement of Maoist front groups in protest planning or signs like this one:
Needless to say, this isn't any less of an issue when conservatives protest. A sampling from the 9/12 turnout:
Image you're Sally Swingvote from Ohio, and you're a bit nervous about the dollar amounts being tossed around with the stimulus and the healthcare debate. You hear about the protest through the news or online coverage, and you see Birthers, racists, and advocates of armed revolt. What's the net effect on your political beliefs going to be? It's hard to have an effective protest when the people doing the protesting are scarier than the thing that's being protested.
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